Hurricane Michael: Will it bring Lake Okeechobee discharges back to St. Lucie River?

Hurricane Michael isn't expected to return Lake Okeechobee discharges to the St. Lucie River.

The Army Corps of Engineers doesn't plan to resume discharges, spokeswoman Erica Skolte said via email Wednesday, before Michael made landfall.

"The most recent weather forecasts do not predict significant rainfall in the South Florida area," Skolte said.

More: Michael worst hurricane to hit Panhandle

Michael is expected to bring about an inch of rain to the area between Orlando and Okeechobee that drains into the lake, meteorologist John Pendergrast said Wednesday.

"There could be places in that area that get more," said Pendergrast of the National Weather Service in Melbourne, "but most of the heavy rain will be closer to the hurricane's landfall. A lot of areas will be getting hit-or-miss showers."

Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach at 1:39 p.m. as a Category 4 hurricane, packing 155 mph winds with bands of rain and torrential downpours.

Lake Okeechobee level

Typically, an inch of rain across Lake O's watershed can raise its elevation about 4 inches. An additional 4 inches would raise the lake's level to 14 feet, 6 ⅝ inches, which is still below the average for this time of year: about 15 feet.

The Corps tries to keep the lake elevation between 12 feet, 6 inches on June 1, the start of the summer rainy season, and 15 feet, 6 inches on Nov. 1, the start of the winter dry season. The lake's level Wednesday morning was 14 feet, 2 ⅝ inches.

"There's not a specified level that would trigger the return of releases," Skolte said, "but the releases we've done this year have put us in a better position to withstand a rain event." 

More: Discharges to St. Lucie River stop, but for how long?

This year, discharges to the St. Lucie River lasted from June 1 to Oct. 5 and dumped about 83 billion gallons of lake water into the river. Discharges west to the Caloosahatchee River are continuing and usually total two to three times as much.

Still, there's no guarantee the discharges are gone for good this year.

"As always, we are monitoring conditions closely," Skolte said, "and will continue to evaluate the situation as Hurricane Michael moves on its path."