Busier-than-average Atlantic hurricane season expected
For local residents like Diane Melvin and Cassandra Montanez, the latest forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has little good news.
The homes of both women suffered damage during Hurricane Irma last September and they're still waiting to complete repairs. Many residents across the area are in the same situation, still recovering from Irma and even from Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Melvin, who lives in DeBary, and Montanez, who lives in Deltona, don't even want to think about the arrival of another hurricane season, much less a season forecast to be busier than normal.
The tropical meteorology team at Colorado State University, where Bill Gray pioneered hurricane season forecasting, released its April forecast Thursday, calling for a slightly above-average hurricane season.
Now led by research scientist Phil Klotzbach in the university's Department of Atmospheric Science, the team calls for 14 named storms during the season that starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30. The long-term average is 12. Of the 14 storms, the tropical meteorology project team expects seven to become hurricanes and three to reach major hurricane strength, which means winds in excess of 110 mph.
No one knows just where those hurricanes will go, but Montanez hopes they don't head toward Florida.
"My roof is gone. I have my roof completely covered with blue tarp," she said. "I'm scared."
Melvin hadn't even thought about hurricane season until asked about it on Thursday. "I'm still dealing with last year," she said. "I'm not looking forward to hurricane season. Normally it doesn't bother me but with the house still not fixed, it's bothering me."
The Colorado State forecast, based on more than 60 years of historical data, cited a low likelihood of a significant El Nino this summer. When an El Nino brings warmer than normal waters to the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America it can stir up wind patterns that create a strong shear in the Atlantic Ocean and tear storms apart, reducing the risks of strong hurricanes.
However, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near their long-term average, so that's considered a neutral factor this year, unlike last year, when the ocean was much warmer than normal. The ocean is slightly warmer than normal in the western Atlantic, but cooler than normal in the eastern Atlantic, where many of the most massive and powerful hurricanes form. Cooler sea surface temperatures provide less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, stated the news release from Colorado State. They're also associated with a more stable atmosphere and drier air, which can both suppress the thunderstorm activity that contributes to developing hurricanes.
So far, the 2018 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the seasons of 1960, 1967, 1996, 2006 and 2011, Klotzbach reported. “The years 1960, 1967 and 2006 had near-average Atlantic hurricane activity, while 1996 and 2011 were both above-normal hurricane seasons."
The team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 135 percent of the average season. By comparison, hurricane activity in 2017, which included Harvey and Maria, was about 245 percent of the average season.
Across the region, local residents and governments are still working to recover from Hurricane Irma which roared through Sept. 10-11, and in some cases from Hurricane Matthew on Oct. 7, 2016.
Both Montanez and Melvin have experienced delays in trying to get their repairs completed.
Montanez did not have insurance and said she does not have the money to make the repairs to her leaking roof. She received $1,500 from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and she applied for a low-cost loan, but said she was denied. She has appealed and is waiting to hear.
Now, she's also working with a non-profit that might be able to make the needed repairs.
Melvin and her husband, James, have insurance but experienced delays in getting the money from her insurance company to cover all the damages. Her neighbor's tree fell into her home during the middle of the night during Hurricane Irma damaging the walls and/or roof in at least three rooms and possibly one of the trusses.
"It's been forever to get a check," she said. "Now we've finally got the check and we're waiting on a contractor. I hope we'll be finished by the end of next month."
Local contractors are having to wait on subcontractors and fencing contractors are scheduling four to five weeks out, she said. "Everyone is so busy."
Along the beaches, erosion has continued in many locations along the coast, including in Flagler Beach, where city officials had a meeting about erosion on Thursday.
Colorado State University 2018 hurricane season forecast:
• 14 named storms (12)
• 70 named storm days (60.1)
• 7 hurricanes (6.5)
• 30 hurricane days (21.3)
• 3 major hurricanes (2.0)
• 7 major hurricane days (3.9)
• 130 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (92)
NOTE: Numbers in parentheses represent medians based on 1981-2010 data.